amp-web-push-widget button.amp-subscribe { display: inline-flex; align-items: center; border-radius: 5px; border: 0; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; padding: 10px 15px; cursor: pointer; outline: none; font-size: 15px; font-weight: 500; background: #4A90E2; margin-top: 7px; color: white; box-shadow: 0 1px 1px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); } /** * Jetpack related posts */ /** * The Gutenberg block */ .jp-related-posts-i2 { margin-top: 1.5rem; } .jp-related-posts-i2__list { --hgap: 1rem; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; column-gap: var(--hgap); row-gap: 2rem; margin: 0; padding: 0; list-style-type: none; } .jp-related-posts-i2__post { display: flex; flex-direction: column; /* Default: 2 items by row */ flex-basis: calc( ( 100% - var(--hgap) ) / 2 ); } /* Quantity qeuries: see https://alistapart.com/article/quantity-queries-for-css/ */ .jp-related-posts-i2__post:nth-last-child(n+3):first-child, .jp-related-posts-i2__post:nth-last-child(n+3):first-child ~ * { /* From 3 total items on, 3 items by row */ flex-basis: calc( ( 100% - var(--hgap) * 2 ) / 3 ); } .jp-related-posts-i2__post:nth-last-child(4):first-child, .jp-related-posts-i2__post:nth-last-child(4):first-child ~ * { /* Exception for 4 total items: 2 items by row */ flex-basis: calc( ( 100% - var(--hgap) ) / 2 ); } .jp-related-posts-i2__post-link { display: flex; flex-direction: column; row-gap: 0.5rem; width: 100%; margin-bottom: 1rem; line-height: 1.2; } .jp-related-posts-i2__post-link:focus-visible { outline-offset: 2px; } .jp-related-posts-i2__post-img { order: -1; max-width: 100%; } .jp-related-posts-i2__post-defs { margin: 0; list-style-type: unset; } /* Hide, except from screen readers */ .jp-related-posts-i2__post-defs dt { position: absolute; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); white-space: nowrap; } .jp-related-posts-i2__post-defs dd { margin: 0; } /* List view */ .jp-relatedposts-i2[data-layout="list"] .jp-related-posts-i2__list { display: block; } .jp-relatedposts-i2[data-layout="list"] .jp-related-posts-i2__post { margin-bottom: 2rem; } /* Breakpoints */ @media only screen and (max-width: 640px) { .jp-related-posts-i2__list { display: block; } .jp-related-posts-i2__post { margin-bottom: 2rem; } } /* Container */ #jp-relatedposts { display: none; padding-top: 1em; margin: 1em 0; position: relative; clear: both; } .jp-relatedposts:after { content: ''; display: block; clear: both; } /* Headline above related posts section, labeled "Related" */ #jp-relatedposts h3.jp-relatedposts-headline { margin: 0 0 1em 0; display: inline-block; float: left; font-size: 9pt; font-weight: bold; font-family: inherit; } #jp-relatedposts h3.jp-relatedposts-headline em:before { content: ""; display: block; width: 100%; min-width: 30px; border-top: 1px solid #dcdcde; border-top: 1px solid rgba(0,0,0,.2); margin-bottom: 1em; } #jp-relatedposts h3.jp-relatedposts-headline em { font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; } /* Related posts items (wrapping items) */ #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items { clear: left; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual { margin-right: -20px; } /* Related posts item */ #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post { float: left; width: 33%; margin: 0 0 1em; /* Needs to be same as the main outer wrapper for Related Posts */ box-sizing: border-box; -moz-box-sizing: border-box; -webkit-box-sizing: border-box; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post { padding-right: 20px; filter: alpha(opacity=80); -moz-opacity: .8; opacity: .8; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post:nth-child(3n+4), #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post:nth-child(3n+4) { clear: both; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post:hover .jp-relatedposts-post-title a { text-decoration: underline; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post:hover { filter: alpha(opacity=100); -moz-opacity: 1; opacity: 1; } /* Related posts item content */ #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual h4.jp-relatedposts-post-title, #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items p, #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items time { font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; margin: 0; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post-nothumbs { position:relative; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post-nothumbs a.jp-relatedposts-post-aoverlay { position:absolute; top:0; bottom:0; left:0; right:0; display:block; border-bottom: 0; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items p, #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items time { margin-bottom: 0; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual h4.jp-relatedposts-post-title { text-transform: none; margin: 0; font-family: inherit; display: block; max-width: 100%; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post .jp-relatedposts-post-title a { font-size: inherit; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; filter: alpha(opacity=100); -moz-opacity: 1; opacity: 1; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post .jp-relatedposts-post-title a:hover { text-decoration: underline; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post img.jp-relatedposts-post-img, #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post span { display: block; max-width: 90%; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post img.jp-relatedposts-post-img, #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post span { height: auto; max-width: 100%; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post .jp-relatedposts-post-date, #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post .jp-relatedposts-post-context { opacity: .6; } /* Hide the date by default, but leave the element there if a theme wants to use css to make it visible. */ .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post .jp-relatedposts-post-date { display: none; } /* Behavior when there are thumbnails in visual mode */ #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual div.jp-relatedposts-post-thumbs p.jp-relatedposts-post-excerpt { display: none; } /* Behavior when there are no thumbnails in visual mode */ #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post-nothumbs p.jp-relatedposts-post-excerpt { overflow: hidden; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual .jp-relatedposts-post-nothumbs span { margin-bottom: 1em; } /* List Layout */ #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-list .jp-relatedposts-post { clear: both; width: 100%; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-list .jp-relatedposts-post img.jp-relatedposts-post-img { float: left; overflow: hidden; max-width: 33%; margin-right: 3%; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-list h4.jp-relatedposts-post-title { display: inline-block; max-width: 63%; } /* * Responsive */ @media only screen and (max-width: 640px) { #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post { width: 50%; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post:nth-child(3n) { clear: left; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items-visual { margin-right: 20px; } } @media only screen and (max-width: 320px) { #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-items .jp-relatedposts-post { width: 100%; clear: both; margin: 0 0 1em; } #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-list .jp-relatedposts-post img.jp-relatedposts-post-img, #jp-relatedposts .jp-relatedposts-list h4.jp-relatedposts-post-title { float: none; max-width: 100%; margin-right: 0; } } /* * Hide the related post section in the print view of a post */ @media print { .jp-relatedposts { display:none ; } } .amp-logo amp-img{width:371px} .amp-menu input{display:none;}.amp-menu li.menu-item-has-children ul{display:none;}.amp-menu li{position:relative;display:block;}.amp-menu > li a{display:block;} /* Inline styles */ div.acss138d7{clear:both;}div.acss0dcba{--relposth-columns:3;--relposth-columns_m:3;--relposth-columns_t:3;}div.acss34347{aspect-ratio:16/9;background:transparent url(https://i0.wp.com/jerz.setonhill.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/tl_polaroid_august_wilson.png?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1) no-repeat scroll 0% 0%;height:150px;max-width:150px;}div.acss020fa{color:#333333;font-family:Arial Narrow;font-size:11px;height:45px;}div.acss89d13{aspect-ratio:16/9;background:transparent url(https://i0.wp.com/jerz.setonhill.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-08-at-9.12.44%E2%80%AFPM.png?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1) no-repeat scroll 0% 0%;height:150px;max-width:150px;}div.acss79008{aspect-ratio:16/9;background:transparent url(https://i0.wp.com/jerz.setonhill.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/sisko-facepalm.jpeg?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1) no-repeat scroll 0% 0%;height:150px;max-width:150px;}div.acssf0fa4{aspect-ratio:16/9;background:transparent url(https://i0.wp.com/jerz.setonhill.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Screenshot-2025-03-30-at-11.02.25%E2%80%AFAM.png?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1) no-repeat scroll 0% 0%;height:150px;max-width:150px;}div.acss38cdf{aspect-ratio:16/9;background:transparent url(https://i0.wp.com/jerz.setonhill.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/294e7538-2cbe-43f7-b597-f9fabc868df0-1.jpg?resize=150%2C150&ssl=1) no-repeat scroll 0% 0%;height:150px;max-width:150px;} .icon-widgets:before {content: "\e1bd";}.icon-search:before {content: "\e8b6";}.icon-shopping-cart:after {content: "\e8cc";}

Traditional Reporters and Data-driven Analysts Both Underestimated Trump’s Chances

A data-driven news outlet that gave Trump a 3-in-10 chance of winning the electoral college analyzes its own failure, and the failure of organizations that looked at the same data and gave Trump a 1-in-100 chance of victory. The article also explores the backpedaling of traditional journalists who had confidently predicted a Clinton win. Too late for me to read this tonight, but I’ll save it for my new class on memes and fake news.

Why, then, had so many people who covered the campaign been so confident of Clinton’s chances? […] [T]he answers are potentially a lot more instructive for how to cover Trump’s White House and future elections than the ones you’d get by simply blaming the polls for the failure to foresee the outcome. They also suggest there are real shortcomings in how American politics are covered, including pervasive groupthink among media elites, an unhealthy obsession with the insider’s view of politics, a lack of analytical rigor, a failure to appreciate uncertainty, a sluggishness to self-correct when new evidence contradicts pre-existing beliefs, and a narrow viewpoint that lacks perspective from the longer arc of American history. Call me a curmudgeon, but I think we journalists ought to spend a few more moments thinking about these things before we endorse the cutely contrarian idea that Trump’s presidency might somehow be a good thing for the media. —FiveThirtyEight

Post was last modified on 22 Jan 2017 11:47 pm

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Dennis G. Jerz