Since the dotcom bust in 2000-2001, nearly a quarter of California technology workers have taken nontech jobs, according to a study of 1 million workers released last week by Sphere Institute, a San Francisco Bay Area public policy group. The jobs they took often paid less. Software workers were hit especially hard. Another 28 percent have dropped off California’s job rolls altogether. They fled the state, became unemployed, or decided on self-employment. —David R. Francis
—Endangered species: US programmers (CS Monitor)
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The programmer job market it pretty tight; but try to remember that because of the scarcity of experienced/educated programmers, many of these "programmers" were people who were either trained by the company or read a couple of books on programming, and then were unable to find jobs after the bust because of the sudden influx of experienced, educated people. (and by educated I sometimes just mean people who had a couple years of experience).
It's not necessarily fair, I'm just saying.
You're right, Will, something like this will consume jobs from the bottom first, but it will also consume jobs from the top -- programmers with too much experience are more expensive. There is age discrimination in the computer industry.