Is Java Finished?

Java and .NET take vastly different approaches to development, said John Rymer, a vice president with Forrester Research. Java’s philosophy of development is to expose low-level system interfaces to give developers greater control. Microsoft simplifies the development process; the developer has less control — but the tools are easier to use. — Vincent Ryan
Is Java Finished? (News Factor)

Update: This blog has set off Will‘s FUD-sensors:

I read the article you posted on your blog. I don’t have time to detail all the innacuracies, but this is my favorite: “.NET’s ease of use and lower licensing costs also will be a draw.” Lower licensing costs?!? How is microsoft offering lower licensing costs than “free”? They weren’t giving away their software the last time I checked.

Oh, good… now I can live in denial for a little while longer.

Update: Will responds again:

And you may be thinking to yourself “What if java/jsp goes away? Will I have learned all this stuff for nothing?” I say – it’s not going to go away. Even if microsoft gains a decent market share in the dynamic web page market, I don’t see them giving away their server software any time soon. Which means java/jsp will still be your best choice, because it’s free. In addition, I would like to point out that Sun is not the only company backing java. IBM also puts a lot of support into java (the free IDE you’re using, Eclipse, is actually made by IBM). And Oracle is a big backer of java as well.

I’m sure in 20 to 30 years (just like C++), java will be outdated by some new programming language/paradigm that probably doesn’t even exist now. But it’s still the longest lastest technology that you could learn today.

Update, 06 Sep: Will sends a link to “blah blah blah,” whose author tells technological doomsayers “stfu.”

Thanks, Will.